← FTG Abyssal Heaven Regional Championship
Water FractalTier 1
at FTG Abyssal Heaven Regional Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suzaku | 11.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Wind Allies | 11.3% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 50.8% | +0.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.5% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 51.5% | +1.0 |
| Water Genbu | 7.5% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 58.5% | +4.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 30.3% | -18.9 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.8% | -6.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.0% | +2.2 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 59.2% | +8.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.2% | +21.1 |
| Fire Exia | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.4% | -7.3 |
| Fire Kongming | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.3% | +10.8 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.2 |
| Water Kongming | 1.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.5% | +5.3 |
| Water Seiryuu | 1.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.3% | -10.3 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.7% | +15.1 |
| Water Tonoris | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.5% | +6.2 |
| Wind Diana | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -4.1 |
Decklists · 9 from this event
The 9 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Losers more often ran: Frozen Dismissal, Tariff Ring.
No cards correlated with winning.
Show all 45 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 39 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chill to the Bone | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Extricating Touch | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Spirit of Water | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Frostbind | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Water | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Potion of Healing | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freeze Stiff | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scale of Souls | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cleric Robes | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Wildheart Lyre | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disciple of the Waves | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |